Commercial dynamics of mexican tomato in the framework of the USMCA: an analysis of trade with the united states using the gravity model


Carlos Ernesto Luquez Gaitan
Natividad Hernández-Mendoza
Alma Alicia Gómez-Gómez


Agricultural Econometrics, International Agricultural Trade, Agricultural Competitiveness.


Objective: Within the framework of the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA), the objective of this study is to provide a description through econometric methods of the variables that influence tomato trade, in addition to describing the commercial dynamics of the sector in both Mexico and the United States.

Design / Methodology / Approach: A gravity model was applied to investigate and evaluate the role of some of the main economic and geographic variables as determinants of Mexican trade flows.

Results: The results show that the most important variables are the US gross national income per capita (GNIPC), as well as the US per capita production and consumption volumes calculated from apparent national consumption (ANC). It was also found that the variable GNIPC is better to determine the model than the gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC), due to the qualities of the variables.

Limitations / Implications: Statistical records for the period 1994 to 2020 were taken into account, considering all varieties of tomato produced and exported.

Findings / Conclusions: Regarding income, the variable with the best fit in the model was in GNIPC, which was adopted in the World Bank’s current way of classifying countries by income, variables such as consumption and production behaved in a typical way increasing and decreasing the volume traded. Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) is one of the most competitive and profitable agricultural products in Mexico.

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