Determining co-movements of tomato prices in the United States and macroeconomic variables in Mexico for 2023

Abstract

Objective: Analysis of comovements between macroeconomic variables and prices of tomato exports from Mexico, estimating the prices of Mexican tomatoes in US supply centers, with some Mexican macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), natural gas prices, the Interbank Equilibrium Interest Rate (TIIE) and inflation.

Design/methodology/approach: It was carried out using Pearson's coefficient, the standardized scores of and consumer inflation. Econometric techniques were combined with variables from the agricultural sector that can function as a reliable antecedent of the intensity of the relationship of these variables.

Results: The coefficient of determination shows an acceptable degree of linear relationship between the market prices of the different cities and the selected macroeconomic variables with an average of 20% correlation; It follows that the variables are not completely independent, they just show a weak linear relationship between them.

Limitations of the study/implications: It is important to develop studies so that the coefficients of determination support whether there is linearity or independence between the macroeconomic variables evaluated.

Findings/conclusions: Econometric techniques were combined with variables from the agricultural sector that can function as a reliable antecedent of the intensity of the relationship of these variables. The coefficient of determination exhibited an acceptable degree of linear relationship between the market prices of the different cities and the selected macroeconomic variables. It is recommended to create a model for price forecasting.