Resilient crops, general circulation models, very high potential.
Objective: This research aimed to identify variations in areas with agroecological potential for Moringa oleifera Lam. (Moringa) cultivation, derived from the effects of climate change to the near horizon of 2039 in the state of Veracruz, Mexico.
Design/methodology/approach: The future scenario considered the current agroecological potential in the State and the general circulation model (GCM) HADGEM2-ES for the RCP8.5 scenario projected to the near future, 2039, with five categories: Very High, High, Medium, Low, and Very Low potential.
Results: An area with a Very High category of 1,057,415 hectares (ha) was identified, which corresponds to an expansion of 4.9% with respect to the current size. It was determined that climate change favors the cultivation of Moringa in three areas of the state. The most significant variation with an increase in the Very High category (115.58%) was identified in southern Veracruz, followed by the central area (110.17%). The greatest decrease (-4.53%) occurred in the north of the state.
Limitations on study/implications: Only the regions with Very High potential were identified, without considering those with High, Medium, Low, and Very Low agroecological potential.
Findings/conclusions: The projections under climate change conditions to the horizon of 2039 highlight the expansion of regions with Very High potential for cultivating the species in 19% of the Veracruz territory.