Determinants of Rice Production, a Food-Dependent Crop in Mexico (Oryza sativa)

Abstract

National rice production is deficient to meet domestic demand, a shift in crop cultivation has caused a decline in the harvested area of rice. The insufficient rice production is offset by a concerning level of imports. The objective is to identify the economic factors that impact national rice production from 2003 to 2022, and to assess the production stage of each factor. The methodology involves calculating growth rates for the relevant variables and estimating a multiple linear econometric model. The determinants of the production model are the planted area, the economically active population in the agricultural sector, and the total use of nitrogen fertilizers. The estimators indicate a positive relationship between production and planted area (β 0.825); a positive relationship between the economically active population in the agricultural sector (1.276); and a positive relationship with nitrogen (0.458). The findings support the theoretical expectations. The results indicate increasing marginal returns for the economically active population agriculture, which has the greatest impact on production, while planted area and nitrogen indicate decreasing marginal returns. In general, the sum of the elasticities indicates increasing returns to scale (2.559). This finding helps in designing strategies focused on the main production factors.