Geographic distribution prediction of an invading species in Mexico: the case of the monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus): Distribution of the Argentine parrot in Mexico

Abstract

Objective: Determine the potential distribution of the monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) in Mexico.

Design/methodology/approach: We generated the model with confirmed presences of the species, the MaxEnt algorithm, layers of bioclimatic and elevation information. The evaluation, calibration and selection were carried out with the kuenm package in R. Finally, we projected the model to the geographic space of Mexico.

Results: The model estimated the most favorable areas for the species in Mexico based on the similarity of the climatic conditions and elevation of the sites with its natural distribution. The most favorable sites for the species are distributed especially in the central–southern portions of the country. Variables influencing its distribution are derived from temperature, precipitation, and elevation.

Limitations on study/implications: The model can contribute to the planning of management and monitoring strategies that mitigate the invasion of this species.

Findings/conclusions: The areas of Mexico where the risk of invasion of the Argentine parrot is high were identified.