Modelling the current and future potential distribution of Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green, 1908) a pest of importance for Mexico

Resumen

Objective: to model the current and future potential distribution of Maconellicoccus hirsutus in order to identify changes in its distribution in Mexico.
Design/methodology/approach: to select a final model, 2,154 occurrence points were used and MaxEnt with the help of the Kuenm package implemented in Rstudio. It was projected throughout Mexico, using six possible climate change scenarios with a proposed threshold (0.02).
Results: a potential present surface of 1,159,335.5 km² was found, corresponding to 59 % of the territory, indicating a greater suitability in coastal areas including the Gulf of Mexico, the entire Pacific slope, and the Yucatan peninsula. All scenarios show an increase in the potential area of up to 1,423,890.18 km2 in 2050 and 1,537,591.19 km² in 2070.
Study limitations/implications: predictions for 2050 and 2070 will depend on the climatic conditions that take place at  the time, so specific studies in each region should be carried out, considering that the species may have adaptability to new climates which would imply constant monitoring. If an increase is observed in the distribution areas, the species
could affect not only agricultural areas but also forest ecosystems.
Findings/conclusions: the projections made for scenarios 2050 and 2070 show an increase in the area of infestation and
environmental suitability for pink cochineal, mainly in the states of the Pacific watershed, the Yucatan peninsula, and the
Gulf of Mexico, with these areas being the most vulnerable.